The Phenomenon of Population Aging in Iran

Elham Fathi Statistical Center of Iran   Abstract. In the past, few people reached old age, but in todaychr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s world, advances in technology and health have allowed people to live longer and die at an older age, so Now more people can experience aging. On the other hand, since almost all countries of the world have gone through or are going through a period of high fertility and fertility, naturally more people are reaching old age at the same time than in the past. Globally, after reducing mortality and the likelihood of children surviving into adulthood, overall fertility declined. As a result, the number of elderly people in societies has increased and now the population of some countries is aging and in other countries it is expected to experience this phenomenon in the future. Therefore, it seems useful and necessary to study the trend of aging indicators in the Iranian population. The research method is secondary and technical analysis and futures research. The required information was obtained from census data and registration statistics. After defining the elderly population, the aging trend of the Iranian population was analyzed and then the future of Iranchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s aging was predicted and analyzed with different scenarios. The results of the forecast showed that with any scenario, Iran will face the phenomenon of population aging in the future, and this is inevitable. Even if fertility increases, the current young population (born in the 1960s) will reach old age in three or four decades, which requires a "healthy aging" policy. However, aging is not a population crisis, but often demographic structures encounter aging during the transition and transfer of population, which is normal.